Allied and Axis GDP


© Ralph Zuljan
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A well established predictor of military victory in great power warfare is GDP (Gross Domestic Product). When someone suggests that the Axis could not hope to defeat the Allies, the underlying assumption is that the relative material potential of the sides made an Axis victory impossible. Scholars readily accept and promulgate a caution against economic determinism, yet some still tend to accept it in practice. Consider, for example, the comments of Mark Harrison who asserts that "the Allies translated their economic superiority into overwhelming advantage on the battlefield."

On the surface, a look at the numbers Harrison provides confirm the belief that the Axis did not stand a chance of winning the Second World War. Consider the ratio of Allied to Axis GDP presented in the following table:

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Wartime GDP of the Great Powers, 1938 to 1945 in International Dollars and 1990 Prices (billions)*
Country 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945
USA 800 869 943 1094 1235 1399 1499 1474
UK 284 287 316 344 353 361 346 331
France 186 199 164 130 116 110 93 101
Italy 141 151 147 144 145 137 117 92
USSR 359 366 417 359 274 305 362 343
Germany