A well established predictor of military victory in great power warfare is GDP (Gross Domestic Product). When someone suggests that the Axis could not hope to defeat the Allies, the underlying assumption is that the relative material potential of the sides made an Axis victory impossible. Scholars readily accept and promulgate a caution against economic determinism, yet some still tend to accept it in practice. Consider, for example, the comments of Mark Harrison who asserts that "the Allies translated their economic superiority into overwhelming advantage on the battlefield."
On the surface, a look at the numbers Harrison provides confirm the belief that the Axis did not stand a chance of winning the Second World War. Consider the ratio of Allied to Axis GDP presented in the following table:
| Wartime
GDP of the Great Powers, 1938 to 1945 in International Dollars and 1990
Prices (billions)* |
| Country |
1938 |
1939 |
1940 |
1941 |
1942 |
1943 |
1944 |
1945 |
| USA |
800 |
869 |
943 |
1094 |
1235 |
1399 |
1499 |
1474 |
| UK |
284 |
287 |
316 |
344 |
353 |
361 |
346 |
331 |
| France |
186 |
199 |
164 |
130 |
116 |
110 |
93 |
101 |
| Italy |
141 |
151 |
147 |
144 |
145 |
137 |
117 |
92 |
| USSR |
359 |
366 |
417 |
359 |
274 |
305 |
362 |
343 |
| Germany |
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