The question on everybody’s lips seems to be who will win Roland Garros this year? It is hard to imagine anybody outside of the top six holding the champion’s trophy on the final Sunday, such is the form and depth at the top that only six women are considered legitimate trophy contenders. This elite group comprises of Jennifer Capriati, Venus and Serena Williams, Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin and Monica Seles.
As the race towards the title heats up, the race in the rankings continues to crunch out its numbers and could provide with some very interesting results, particularly at the top, once the Grand Slam fortnight is complete. For the first time since 1996, Martina Hingis will fall out of the world’s top eight with her absence from the Sanex WTA Tour due to injury. Lindsay Davenport’s absence from the tour has been several months longer than Hingis’s, however she will not fall as low as she is guaranteed to be ranked in the Top 8 by the fortnight’s end. It says a lot about the shift at the top in women’s tennis – between 1998 and 2001, Hingis and Davenport dominated the tour together and held the top two positions in the rankings during this period. Their fall in the rankings has been largely attributed to injuries but also to the rise of Capriati, the Williams sisters and the Belgian talents.
Once again this year, we are likely to see a change of the #1 ranked player by the end of the tournament. Venus Williams can take over Capriati and secure the #1 ranking by reaching the semi finals, however given her questionable health and a tough draw with possibly Schett (her vanquisher at last year’s tournament) and Seles (her vanquisher at the last Grand Slam) in her path. Three other players, although they are not as likely to take the ranking away from Venus, have a mathematical chance of obtaining the ranking and they are the current world #1 Jennifer Capriati, Serena Williams and former world #1 Monica Seles. A number of scenarios can take place for either of the three to reach the pinnacle of the rankings, but what is certain is that Serena would have to at least reach the finals to do so (with Venus falling before the quarter finals). Capriati would have to win the tournament (with Venus also falling before the quarter finals), while Seles would also have to win the tournament, relying on Venus to fall quite early in the tournament and an opponent in the finals to be one of Jennifer, Serena or Justine to accumulate enough quality points.
