Future Scenarios

California may not fall into the ocean in the next two decades, but it may not be immune from a dramatic climate changr, according to a recent study by some leading ecological scientists. While non-Californians may take a "it's not in my back yard" attitude, in truth, California's climate changes will affect the rest of the country (and the world) because nothing happens in isolation on this planet. And the changes in climate will have some dramatic effects on the economy and environment for all of us.

Here's what scientists have concluded, based on current data: Sunny California will be even sunnier in the future, with warmer and wetter winters and hotter summers. But warmer, milder weather won't be good news. If their information is correct, the higher temperatures will start destroying native habitat.

"Doomsday scenarios" make for good press because there's something compelling about a disaster. However, they can also be used to wake folks up about the dangers of continuing along a course and in this case, the outcome can be pretty severe. If nothing is done to change the situation in California (no real drop in emission levels, more land development), scientists say this scenario is the likely outcome:

The warming will be gradual, but by 2030, the summers will be 1-2 degrees warmer and the winters will be 5-6 degrees warmer. This doesn't sound like much, but it's enough to keep a good snow pack from forming in the mountains. Lack of snow pack means less water for everyone in the summer - which will make California hotter and dryer. Although there will be more rain, it also means more landslides (like we've seen in the past few years) and more erosion. Water temperatures will heat up and those species of fish and mammals that can move away will move - or die. And some endangered species will simply become extinct because they can't cope with the changes in their fragile environment.

But the problems don't end there. The changes in the weather may lead to drought and water shortages during the late spring and summer. Crops that need irrigation water (such as grapes) will be hard hit. Warmer summers mean wildfires and more of the Santa Ana winds that whip these fires up and down the dry canyons of California.

The wildlife and plants that can drift north will go northward to cooler habitats, unless developed areas block their paths. Some researchers say that this may mean that diseases (such as the hanta virus) will also migrate northward, causing some health problems.

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