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Beating El Nino

© Amy Marquis

When it comes to extreme weather, early preparation is the key. But the farther out a forecast looks, the less accurate it tends to be...

What is El Niño? Above average water temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. The phenomenon has definitive influences over global weather patterns.

Unless we're talking about El Niño.

A 19-month study, sponsored by the United Nations, looked at 16 countries affected by the "El Niño of the Century," which took place in 1997-98. The phenomenon resulted in at least $32 billion in damages and hundreds of lives lost worldwide.

Teams of researchers examined what worked and what didn't in national responses to the forecasts and impacts of the El Niño. What they found was simple: Now is the time for vulnerable countries around the globe to begin preparing for the next El Niño,

El Niño Study Recommendations Involve the heads of states early in climate disaster policy and action Create regional organizations focused strictly on El Niño impacts Designate funding to map the world's most vulnerable populations Improve forecasting of the impacts and onset of El Niño Educate local educators and decision-makers on how to best use El Nino forecasts Develop a scientific establishment within each country to use research results from other countries Deploy a network of fixed ocean buoys in the Indian Ocean to collect meteorological information (a similar network already exists in the Pacific) Source: NCAR

"The 1997-98 event was a wake-up call," says the study's principal investigator, Michael Glantz, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "Awareness of what El Niño can do to societies and economies is now high."

The last event had serious consequences, spawning droughts, floods, fires, and frost around the world. Lives were lost, infrastructure was destroyed, food and water reserves were depleted, and disease broke out.

Participating nations included Bangladesh, China, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Kenya, Mozambique, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

In spring 1999 the UN Environment Programme received a $650,000 grant to organize the El Niño study.

A team was established to focus on each of the 16 countries to assess its response to the 1997-98 El Niño forecast. A full summary report and the complete 16-country study, to be published in December, will address the challenges faced by these nations and recommend specific actions to help reduce devastation from the next El Niño.

Because of its periodic nature and the somewhat predictable pattern of its impacts, El Niño allows the earliest warning for climate-related disasters. The lesson learned touts preparedness as the solution, focusing on the opportunity for long-range planning in affected countries.

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