Wild Weather?

Hurricane Andrew caused $32.4 billion in damages and claimed 61 lives in 1992. In 1995 California flooding cost $3.3 billion and killed 27. 1999 saw tornadoes rip apart $1 billion in homes and businesses in the Southern Plains, and 55 people died.

Has Mother Nature developed a vicious streak in recent years, or is it just in our minds? After examining hundreds of studies, some scientists say the trend is evident. However, others argue that, although damage tallies are on the rise, the culprit is more than just weather.

“Our review shows consistency between our climate models and what we have observed in the 20th century. Models of 21st century climate suggest that many of these changes in climate extremes are likely to continue. We also found that extreme weather events have had increasing impact on human health, welfare, and financial losses,” said David R. Easterling of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. “This trend is likely to become more intense in the years to come both as the climate continues to change, and society continues to become more vulnerable to weather and climate extremes.”

With a growing population and increasing development, the impact of the weather is more pervasive. In the 1950s citizens saw about $100 million in damages caused by 10 events annually. The 1990s witnessed $6 billion each year, with the number of extreme weather events growing to 35.

The trend is also showing changes in the weather itself. Heavy precipitation events are more frequent. There have been an increasing number of days with heavy rain and snow over the course of the 20th century. These bouts are responsible for a disproportionate 5 to 10 percent increase in total annual precipitation since the beginning of the century.

We’re losing more money than ever before. Annual hurricane losses have gone from $5 billion in the 1940s to more than $40 billion in the 1990s. Floods were claiming annual losses of $1 billion in the ‘40s. Now they cost $6 billion per year.

However, scientists point out that it's dangerous to take these statistics out of context, tagging urbanization as a catalyst. For example, building cities and roads requires the use of pavement, which does not absorb water. That translates to increased flooding.

The answer to the question of Mother Nature's nature isn't a simple one. Population growth and increased wealth are part of the equation. With more people moving to coastal regions each year, we can expect to see damages continue to rise as scientists keep watch over changes in the weather.

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