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The Middle-Earth Prophecies - Page 7© Michael Martinez
Elrond's inability to see clearly what might befall in the lands where the Shadow extended implies a limit to the source of his foresight. That is, if Iluvatar were handing him visions, then why cut them short? Malbeth seemed to be pretty well informed on matters of state and catastrophe. His foresight is almost like foreknowledge, and it seems likely he was getting his visions from Iluvatar, or perhaps from Manwe.
But Tolkien notes that Iluvater intervenes only after Gandalf's death. It is at this point when the Valar's plan to defeat Sauron fails. For two thousand years, therefore, the Valar have been running the show. How much do they know of what is to come, and how much are they guessing? And they must be guessing at some things. Otherwise, why would Gandalf be caught off guard by Saruman's betrayal and the appearance of the Balrog? The uncertainty of the Valar's plan implies strongly they could not foresee the end of the conflict. Iluvatar's intervention implies strongly he wanted the conflict to end in a certain way.
In speaking of the Valar's refusal to intervene directly in Beleriand before the end of the First Age, Tolkien suggests that "the last intervention with physical force by the Valar, ending in the breaking of Thangorodrim, may then be viewed as not in fact reluctant or even unduly delayed, but timed with precision. The intervention came before the annihilation of the Eldar and the Edain. Morgoth though logically triumphant had neglected most of Middle-earth during the war; and by he had in fact been weakened: in power and prestige (he had lost and failed to recover one of the Silmarils), and above all in mind....The war was successful, and ruin was limited to the small (if beautiful) region of Beleriand."
The Valar were thus not always acting on the basis of foreknowledge, or foresight, but at least on some occasions -- especially after much Time had passed -- on the basis of their own deliberations. They were calculating when and how much they could intervene directly in History. Their knowledge of what was yet to come was incomplete, and growing more incomplete with each passing age. In the end, they miscalculated (in fact, they miscalculated more than once, but Iluvatar had to intervene directly on at least two occasions to preserve the natural order).
What seems like prophecy in many places thus derives from compulsion, when it is the product of an evil will such as Melkor's or Sauron's; or from forecasting, the calculation of what must or should befall based upon knowledge of events and peoples; or from foreknowledge, which is derived from the Music, the Vision, or Iluvatar; or from Iluvatar himself. Only the latter is true prohetic foretelling, but prophecy is not simply foretelling. Prophecy in its broadest meaning is revelation. If the Valar reveal something to Elves or Men, they imparting prophetic knowledge or foresight.
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