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The Sauron Strategies: One War to Win Them All, Except... - Page 10© Michael Martinez
The vast array of kingdoms and tribes Sauron had assembled assured him of ultimate victory in any war where no one used the Ring. The recovery of the Ring would have assured him of undisputed control over Middle-earth. The Eldar who remained were no longer powerful enough to challenge him. The Dunedain had dwindled and were too few in number to raise the powerful armies they had commanded at the height of their power. And the Northmen, though strong in places like Dale, the upper Vales of Anduin, and Rohan, were divided into many realms and incapable of forming an alliance powerful enough to challenge him.
In 3018, Sauron was poised to crush Dale and Erebor, roll through northern Mirkwood, and sweep the Vales of Anduin clear of Men, Elves, and Dwarves. Even Lothlorien probably would not have survived for long. Gondor, on the other hand, possessed sufficient strength, especially if reinforced by Rohan, to withstand at least one massive assault. Saruman's assigned role was to prevent or delay Rohan's reinforcing Gondor. The Orcs of the Misty Mountains could attack the Beornings, the Woodmen, and Lothlorien, and undoubtedly Imladris and Eriador. Dol Guldur, now reinvested, would keep Thranduil at bay. There was no hope of the northern peoples forming a last-minute alliance and coming to Gondor's aid. All the pieces were in place. Victory was assured. It was a good time to be a Dark Lord.
Gandalf's analysis of Sauron's intentions and priorities (as revealed at the Council of Elrond in 3018 and in the last debate of the Captains of the West in 3019) offers insight into Sauron's changing strategies in the Third Age. When he awoke and assumed a physical shape again, Sauron believed he had been wounded deeply through the destruction of the One Ring. Determined to avenge himself upon his enemies, and perhaps to regain control over Middle-earth, he set about the task of dividing and weakening his foes. His lieutenant brought about the destruction of Arnor. The Balrog (either at Sauron's direction or through fortuitous circumstance) destroyed Khazad-dum and almost eliminated Lothlorien. The Easterlings, Corsairs, and Haradrim wore down Gondor, reducing it from a very powerful empire to a shriveled state, still proud but fearful and imbued with a sense of dread and doom. And most of the remaining Eldar fled Middle-earth when they saw the final conflict was about to begin.
Despite occasional setbacks, by 3019 Sauron was confident of his ability to achieve complete victory over his foes. He had learned that the One Ring still existed, and he knew who possessed it. He feared that someone would take the Ring and use it against him. The greatest peril, in Sauron's view, lay in the possibility that division and strife might arise within his armies. The forces he had assembled could be used against him. Aragorn and Gandalf therefore concluded that the best chance for Frodo's quest to destroy the Ring depended upon Sauron's fear. They let him believe that a new Ringlord, presumably Aragorn, was emerging. Keenly aware of what delay had cost him in the Second Age (and perhaps feeling he would not be acting too soon), Sauron launched a massive attack against Gondor in the hope of capturing the Ring. And when that assault failed, he unleashed everything he had left in a savage assault he believed would quickly bring the Ring to him.
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