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Have A Happy Hobbit Holiday© Michael Martinez
In Tolkien's imaginary timeline, the War of the Ring occurred around the year 4042 BCE. At that time the Hobbits of the Shire were using a modified version of the King's Reckoning for their Calendar system. Although Tolkien says the Numenoreans were monotheists who worshipped Iluvatar (God) in what would seem a rather primitive (but highly puritan) fashion to us, he doesn't say whether the peoples who lived under their rule were so influenced. Certainly no one in Middle-earth would have been celebrating the holidays we observe in our western culture today.
Among western holidays Chanukah is perhaps the second best-known, but it is more ancient than Christmas and less ancient than many so-called pagan holidays which are no longer celebrated (or are celebrated only in revived form). Chanukah is a celebration of the victory over the Syrians by the Maccabees and their followers. It's a national holiday which has been taken up into the Hebrew canon.
Hobbits were not Jewish (in fact, there were no Jews in 4046 BCE), but Tolkien admired the Jewish people. I can't say whether any Hobbits would have converted to Judaism once they were introduced to it. Non-Judeo-Christian belief systems rose up in northern Europe where Hobbits are said to live, and it was Christianity not Judaism which eventually replaced the Celto-Germanic religions. The Romans did carry their gods with them to many lands, but Constantine's conversion to Christianity in the early 4th century CE ensured that the older religions would die out or be relegated to isolated enclaves in the lands of the empire.
The origins of Christmas are often misunderstood and misrepresented. That is to be expected because the holiday itself was not originally celebrated by early Christians, who were taught not to venerate people and days but to await the coming of the Kingdom of God. (Of course, they were also taught that no one knew when the Kingdom of God would arrive, so eventually some of the bishops began to organize traditions and customs to help preserve a knowledge of ancient days -- feast days and traditions helped to preserve knowledge which is now commonly passed along through electronic and print media).
Christmas, like Chanukah, would not have been celebrated by the Hobbits of the Shire, but historians will point out that efforts to identify the birthdate of Jesus have covered virtually all 12 months of the year. What may be significant to Tolkien researchers is the fact that some early Christians believed the Annunciation and Crucifiction both occurred on March 25. March 25 is an important date in Tolkien's Fourth Age chronologies. It was the day that Gondor celebrated the Downfall of Sauron and also marked the beginning of the new year in the Fourth Age calendar.
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