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Strange as news from Bree... - Page 6© Michael Martinez
So Arnor suffered a more serious setback in the days of the Great Plague than it did in the war of 1409. Arthedain had emerged from the war as a reborn Arnor. Many people had died in the war but the Elves had helped defeat Angmar, whereas the Elves could not be much help against the Great Plague even though they might be gifted healers. Men and Hobbits had to let nature run its course.
Bree must therefore have declined considerably due to the Great Plague. Most of the traffic from the south must have vanished completely. Tharbad might still send messengers north, but Gondor withdrew its garrison (if any of the soldiers survived) and after that time the two Dunadan kingdoms left each alone for many years. Without the Stoors there was no more reason to expect traffic from Dunland.
The Shire-folk remained close to the Bree-folk in the early years, however, and there was probably a great deal of traffic between Bree and the Shire. Dwarves probably also maintained a steady traffic, for this was before misfortune turned the Longbeard Dwarves out of their ancient homeland and set them on a centuries-long wandering migration. The great dragons had not yet come down from the north to trouble Men and Dwarves. Middle-earth must still have seemed a reasonably safe place after the Great Plague.
King Araval attempted to recolonize Cardolan, probably after he won a victory over Angmar in 1851. The year 1851 marked the onset of Gondor's troubles with the Wainriders, the ferocious Easterlings who overthrew the Northmen of Rhovanion. Sauron seems to have felt threatened by three powers: the Kingdom of Rhovanion, Arnor, and Gondor. Rhovanion was destroyed, Gondor lost a king and its eastern marches, and Arnor won a brief war. But Araval's colonization efforts failed because Angmar had sent wights to infest the Barrow Downs in Tyrn Gorthad after the Great Plague. No one could withstand the terror wielded by these monsters.
The implication, therefore, is that Arnor's population was growing again, though we don't know what people Araval tried to send as colonists. Bree must have stood poised to benefit from renewed trade with Cardolan (which may have recovered a little in the years since the Plague anyway), so its people would have been greatly disappointed the colonization failed.
Araval's failure preceded by a few decades a renewal of warfare with Angmar. This time Angmar's attacks began to inflict significant losses on Arnor. The population must have declined and its ability to maintain a large standing army became impaired. King Araphant renewed communication with Gondor in 1940. That communication, presumably handled through the palantiri, must have had no impact on Bree. News of the war would pass through the town but word would be old and stale by the time it came there.
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