Nader Again: So What?
Even so, the Reform "endorsement" is not a nomination, and does not allow Nader to automatically appear on ballots in states where Reform has permanent ballot status. Nader will have to petition for ballot status in all fifty states if he wants to have any hope of impacting this election beyond the fringes. Not an easy task.
The Spoiler Factor
The popular, but highly flawed, wisdom has it that Nader's run in 2000 was the deciding factor in Gore's loss, and that any sort of a showing by Nader in 2004 could sink John Kerry's campaign. And so, on May 19, Nader and Kerry had a "a friendly discussion" about the campaign, with Kerry stopping short of asking Nader to drop out of the race.
First, a final quick word about 2000. The argument that if Nader hadn't run, Gore would have picked up all his votes and won the election, is based on a willful disregard of the full facts. Nader's candidacy actually helped Gore by bringing in more progressive voters who otherwise would not have voted at all. Without Nader on the ballot, Bush would have won a far more decisive victory. (If you would like more details on the data that prove this, please read this report I put out last year.)
But, regardless of what happened in 2000, can Nader hurt Kerry in 2004? I'd say that it all depends on John Kerry.
How will Kerry show himself to be different from Bush? With Kerry echoing Bush's plan to "stay the course" in Iraq, how will Kerry attract voters with dissenting points-of-view? With Kerry accepting donations from all comers, how will he make a case for electoral reform?
These are serious issues, and they are issues that Nader's supporters, Green Party USA members, and many more Americans care deeply about. If Kerry fails to demonstrate how his administration will differ from the current one, voters will have every reason to search elsewhere for a champion. And it just may be Ralph Nader.
Making A Difference
So, yes, Ralph Nader can make a difference in this campaign. He can keep John Kerry honest, and force him to address issues in a way that is meaningfully different than the current administration. He can hold power accountable, and publicly point out the abuses of the system. He can provide a choice to voters with no place else to go.
But, despite what the Reform Party claims, he cannot win.
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