The Pakistani Ghauri missile could be real despite the hoax theory that is gaining currency in New Delhi.
Defence analysts point out that the United States state department has already indicated that Ghauri could be real. But the defence ministry seems to be spreading the word that the Pakistani claim need not be true, pointing out that what was test-fired was just a single-stage missile. And that a missile with a 1,500-km range, as claimed by the Pakistani government, cannot be launched from a mobile launcher
"It is not necessary that there should be a fixed launch site," says Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis Deputy Director Captain Uday Bhaskar. "What I infer is that the missile is either one of the North Korean No Dong or the Chinese DF series which need not necessarily have a fixed launch site."
Before jumping to any conclusions, defence analysts are awaiting more details about the missile.
"But the US confirmation proves beyond doubt that the missile has been tested. Now we want to know about the origin and nature of the missile," says Captain Bhaskar.
The No Dong is a variant of the Scud missile used by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in the Gulf war. The Scuds were launched from mobile launchers and hence No Dong, which has a range of 900 km, could also be launched from a mobile launcher.
Observers feel it need not be a test fire, but the launch of an already proven missile, for more than 800 systems have to be tested before a missile is test-fired and hence it cannot be an overnight miracle, keeping all the programmes within the wraps. Moreover, such a test hardly ever takes place over the land, risking civilian lives.
Besides, the re-entry of a missile into the prescribed path after it is fired is very critical and involves a complex technology which has to be evolved over the years, say experts. It took India many years to successfully conduct three test-fires with its indigenous Agni.
"My inference is that Pakistan does not have the talent or the technological support structure to achieve the complex task. Hence I feel the missile was a supplied one," says Captain Bhaskar.
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