We often hear scientists throwing around the fashionable statement that any alien civilization is going to be far advanced beyond our own. Such civilizations, they say, could be millions of years ahead of us. To them, we would be no more impressive than the ants are to us.
But what does it mean for a civilization to be 1,000,000 years old? This is a question once posed by the late Carl Sagan. Is there any way to discuss this in understandable terms, or is it just an abstract concept meant only to inform us that we are primitive? In this article, we will examine an established method for classifying civilizations and find out where we are, where we're headed, and just how far ahead of us the little green men may be.
A SCHEMING SCIENTIST
Nikolai Kardashev was what some might call a schemer. After turning things over
in his head and picking his moment, the Soviet astronomer proposed in 1964 a
scheme for classifying civilizations that has become quite popular—even if only
transparently—in SF and in speculation about our future in space.
This system, rather than focusing on cultural achievement or technological gadgetry, places civilizations in three groups based on their ability to harness and make use of energy. These groups are creatively named Type I, Type II, and Type III. Sounds good so far, but just what do these groupings mean? How can we get in the club?
Well, in a nutshell they can be broken down like this:
Type I: Controls the energy of an entire planet. This civilization can control the weather, can prevent earthquakes, and boasts mastery of an energy factor of about 10^16 watts. Though advanced, a Type I civilization still faces
