Yeltsin's Condition (Political and Otherwise) - SPECIAL REPORT
A month has gone by since Yeltsin's Cabinet purge (the fourth reorganization in twelve months), so it's only fitting that we take a broader view of what may be going on around President Boris Yeltsin.
Some people believe that Premier Victor Chernomyrdin - long since recognized as a leading candidate in the 2000 presidential elections - was fired because Yeltsin feared Chernomyrdin was trying to de facto replace him or at least publicize himself to enhance his presidential prospects at Yeltsin's expense. In TV appearances, Chernomyrdin himself was publicizing his efforts to solve ordinary people's problems, and some even say that during US Vice President Al Gore's visit to Moscow, Chernomyrdin promised quick passage of START-2 in exchange for Gore's support in the elections. In other words, in Yeltsin's eyes, Chernomyrdin may have gotten too big for his britches.
It's an old principle that leaders either should not have designated successors, or should not name the best and most talented (and hence the most power-hungry) for the job. The greatest single danger to a leader usually comes from his/her designated successor. That's why, for example, even in the US, with long-established democratic and constitutional traditions, the vice president (who is usually chosen by the president, while the latter is still a candidate, to join his ticket) tends not to be the brightest lantern at the campfire. And this would certainly explain Yeltsin's selection of Sergei Kiriyenko, who is definitely talented but who has all of four months' ministerial experience and virtually no political connections in Moscow.
An alternative hypothesis is that Yeltsin was manipulated into firing Chernomyrdin and his Cabinet. The prime suspect is Boris Berezovsky. Nope - he didn't shrivel up and disappear after he was fired as Deputy Chair of the Security Council in November. He is now advisor to Valentine Yumashev, Kremlin Chief of Staff. He also has acknowledged - no, boasted of - regular association with Yeltsin's daughter and publicity chief Tatyana Dyachenko. Dyachenko's influence and that of whoever gets her ear has long been noted.
The very weekend of Yeltsin's purge, Berezovsky left a sickbed in Switzerland (after a snowmobiling accident) to return to Moscow, and predicted in a TV interview that the government would soon be dismissed. However, those who saw him insist that he did not know what specifically was afoot, let alone had a hand in it. If that's the case, then he had a helluva sense of timing.
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