Iraq: Explosion in Moscow

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Feb 6, 1998

Top story this week by far: Russia is going all-out this time to stand by Iraq.

Late last month, Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov - a Middle East expert who speaks Arabic - sent a special envoy, his deputy Victor Posuvalyuk, to Baghdad. His mission, which is still going on, is to get enough concessions from Saddam Hussein to defuse the movement to strike Iraq for noncompliance with United Nations inspections. Hussein has refused access to certain areas, labelling them "presidential sites". The UN wants to inspect them for their various potentials for harboring the research, creation and/or storage of chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons. For more on the Iraq situation in particular, see Michael Siegel's previous (and presumably current as well!) columns in Middle East Politics.

The situation is rapidly becoming a high stakes political arena in Moscow itself, as Russia prepares to confront America as never before since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Posuvalyuk is in the eye of the storm: he announced on Monday this week that Baghdad had agreed to inspection of the sites. He was quickly contradicted by Washington and Baghdad. Nevertheless, he then announced Tuesday that Baghdad had indeed agreed to concessions, though that also has been denied by Baghdad.

Meanwhile, Primakov announced that Russia would probably veto any move in the UN Security Council to authorize a strike on Iraq. The UN Security Council is a committee of 15 countries dedicated to examining problems just like this one. Ten of them serve on a rotating basis, while five - Russia, the US, UK, France and China - are permanent members. Also, permanent members have an absolute veto on any Security Council resolution. Of course, the US may well just act alone anyway.

On Tuesday, the Duma held a special session, to which Primakov was invited, to discuss the growing Iraq crisis. Speaker Gennady Seleznev, a Communist, warned that nuclear strikes may occur in the event of an attack on Iraq. Alexander Shokhin, leader of the Our Home is Russia faction in the Duma, said US strikes against Iraq would "affect Duma decisions on a number of documents, including the START-2 treaty". Vladimir Zhirinovsky, ultra-nationalist and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party in the Duma, offered a resolution calling on Russia to unilaterally break sanctions against Iraq if a military strike ensues. He also called for Posuvalyuk's replacement, accusing him of contributing to Iraq's isolation. He referred to Hussein as his friend.

(An important side note here: in this context, the Liberal Democratic Party is like the phrase "jumbo shrimp"; it is

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