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Russian relations with the West are said to be at their lowest since Gorbachev was in charge. For example, I have read reports almost ad infinitum of Americans in Russia facing hostile reactions right and left over the last few months. I presume we all know how close the Russians have been to the Serbs. We also know how close the Russians are to Iraq.
Many Russians are upset that NATO is not only ignoring their efforts to broker peace, but in fact is hostile to Russian interests, as with their call for a world oil embargo of Yugoslavia (Russia is a prime oil exporter, including to Yugoslavia.) In general, as with Russian support for Iraq, Russia seems to be finding her foreign policy as defender of the US' enemies. This is much like a zealous public defender who aggressively defends even murderers and rapists, so as to keep the public prosecutors on their toes. But, notwithstanding Russian President Boris Yeltsin's announcement early on that this could lead to World War III, I have decided from the beginning, and continue to stick by my decision, that Russia is not going to engage in war in the very near future. The source of my confidence then and now is the same as that of my trepidation over previous crises: Russia's domestic situation. Since September, the Russian government has been under the same premier, Yevgeny Primakov. Yeltsin seems to be keeping his promise to keep his meddling nose out of the government, concentrating his ire on the presidential staff itself. Significantly, the government has survived the winter - which is a trying time for any government which has trouble keeping its people fed and fuelled (and Russian winters are not known for their moderation). People aren't expecting things to change anytime soon. Russian commentators have described the government as in a state of suspended animation, at least until the Duma elections this December. And expectations of stability can become reality, as pre-emptive revolutionary moves are deemed unnecessary. As a case in point, Russian Defense Minister Marshal Igor Sergeyev called for a re-vamping of Russia's military - including nuclear - doctrines in the face of NATO's actions in Yugoslavia. In practice, this means a serious beefing-up in conventional and nuclear forces. The extent to which this is possible is another question...though the Soviet State was always well-known for the extent to which it could extract bountiful military resources from essentially a Third World population. Go To Page: 1 2
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