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Russia and the Caspian: The New Middle East. Part VI in a series


© Jeffrey Deutsch

As you're reading this, the Commonwealth of Independent States' summit is underway. This is basically Russia's last chance to resuscitate the Collective Security Treaty.

In fact, four members: Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova (located between Ukraine and Romania and heavily Romanian; it was the Romanian province of Bessarabia for many years before becoming the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic) have just formed their own defense organization, which has been dubbed GUAM. Plans are already underway for GUAM to form a joint peacekeeping battalion.

The implications of this are obvious from Russia's perspective. This is especially since Ukraine has previously hosted military exercises with NATO, and is closer to the West diplomatically and otherwise than is Russia.

In particular, Georgia is pulling away from the union, so this time I'll focus on what Georgia's been up to.

Georgia has made clear, via her Foreign Minister Irakli Menagherishvili, that she won't renew barring major changes. In this she joins Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan.

This does not mean being an enemy of Armenia, however: this very announcement was part of a visit to Yerevan, Armenia, including with Armenian President Robert Kocharian. Plans will be made for a visit to Yerevan by Georgian President Edward Shevardnadze.

Georgia has just joined the Council of Europe. This will be made official at an April 27 ceremony in Strasbourg. This means, among other things, that Georgia can send five delegates from her own parliament to the Council's parliament, and one judge to the European Court of Human Rights.

It also means she has standards to meet, just as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic have to meet Western military/technical standards as part of their new NATO membership. Specifically, Georgia has until 2002 to fulfill certain conditions regarding human rights, nationalities, property rights in general and those of refugees in particular. This is going to be a tall order.

For one thing, Georgia is still not a unified entity by any stretch of the imagination. Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Adzharia are all effectively independent of Tbilisi. Now, another minority region, Mingrelia, might be making its first separatist moves.

Keep in mind that Mingrelia-Tbilisi swords have crossed before. Zviad Gamsakhurdia was descended from Mingrelian nobility, and Mingrelia largely supported him. Since Zviadists have been implicated in the most recent attempt on Shevardnadze's life, this does not endear Mingrelia to Tbilisi.

Now, a new political party, the Union for the Revival of Mingrelia, has formed - despite provisions in the Georgian Constitution which forbid region-specific political parties. Indeed, the party leadership may well be experienced in the art of secession: the founder, Alexander Chachia, served as an advisor to Adzhar Supreme Council chair Aslan Abashidze. I wonder what kind of networking he had to do to found his party: is there a World Secessionists' Convention somewhere? (If not, it hasn't been for lack of activity.)

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