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Maskhadov's domestic opponents have been trying to erect an alternative Islamic hierarchy - some believe that some of his recent moves, such as discharging his wife from heading up a charity, have been motivated by the need to appeal to the same constituency. This alternative hierarchy may have serious corrosive effects on his government.
There is much to worry about at least in the short term. Kidnapping - and sometimes killing - of foreigners is becoming a national sport among some Chechen bandits, and it is known that Maskhadov's administration cannot do much about this in the short term. But, the recent arrest of three relatives of bandit leader Khottab may have been a move to make the bandits seriously reconsider their stance vis-a-vis the government in general and the issue of kidnappings in particular. For now, the Russians are making it clear that they are willing to use force in Chechnya, but only as a last resort to protect their own vital interests, like the safety of their personnel. And, Primakov has made clear that he is willing to meet with Maskhadov to discuss this and related matters. The old Middle East wasn't "complete" without its chaotic - and kidnapper-happy - Lebanon. Chechnya is an all too neat parallel. With one important exception: Chechnya also hosts an oil pipeline. If things explode in Chechnya, support for the Baku-Supsa-Ceyhan pipeline will skyrocket, especially if things between Azerbaijan and Armenia and between Georgia and its breakaway Abkhazia (which is in many respects to Georgia as Chechnya is to Russia) stay relatively calm. Relatively calm in these contexts means that invective takes the place of gunpowder. Chechnya is especially the place to watch in the immediate term. In the medium term, Turkey and Iran are likely going to intervene officially in the Caspian. Their efforts may either forestall or hasten (or even necessitate) larger-scale intervention on the part of larger powers, acting alone or in concert. In the meantime, I remain Jeff Deutsch
The copyright of the article Russia and the Caspian: The New Middle East. Part V in a series - Page 3 in Russian Politics is owned by Jeffrey Deutsch. Permission to republish Russia and the Caspian: The New Middle East. Part V in a series - Page 3 in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.
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