Russia and the Caspian: The New Middle East. Part II in a series
Russia of plotting the attempt - especially since Russia was still sheltering Igor Georgadze, a suspect in an August 1995 assassination attempt. (Indeed, Georgadze fled via a Russia military flight from the Russian airport near Tbilisi - the same route the current plotters were said to have used.)
However, the attempt was eventually traced to the Zviadists. Indeed, this was not the end of Zviadist violence: in the wake of the government investigation, a Zviadist leader, Gocha Esebua, took four UN mission observers hostage. He demanded the release of those held in the investigation, the return of "legitimate" government to Georgia and the withdrawal of Russian forces. He shortly fled (and was killed a few weeks later by Georgian security forces) and the hostages were released unharmed. But, at Esebua's funeral, half a dozen Zviadist gunmen believed to have reconciled with Shevardnadze's government were murdered.
Meanwhile, the Zviadists' backing remains a mystery...a mystery, of course, which could lead straight to the Kremlin. But in any case, Russia is already intervening openly in Georgia...
Georgia has no fewer than three national minorities who want independence - Abkhazia in the West, South Ossetia (which wants to join North Ossetia, just on the other side of the Russian border) in the north and also Adzharia in the southwest. Abkhazia and South Ossetia border Russia; Adzharia does not, but instead borders Turkey. Keep that in mind.
Adzharia is the easiest case. Under President Aslan Abashidze, it has effectively achieved independence through outward support of Georgia's territorial integrity in general and of Edward Shevardnadze in particular. (Also, having the Russian 90th Regiment on its soil doesn't hurt - at least with respect to the threat of Georgian domination, anyway.) Officially, it's a free economic zone within Georgia. In reality, Adzharia has its own government - including an Islamic one-party ("Union for Georgia's Revival") dictatorship. But, things are peaceful at least.
Abkhazia, on the other hand, is a nasty mess. Abkhazia split off from Georgia in a 1992-1993 war - and fighting flared up again last May. Abkhazia is under the CIS (read: Russian) military umbrella. Russian "peacekeepers" are "guarding" Abkhazian boundaries.
Meanwhile, within Abkhazia, ethnic Georgians are reporting repeated harassment, beatings and even torture. For example, in March 1995, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees found that the Abkhaz militia had tortured and murdered dozens of Georgians returning to their homes in the Gali region from exile. And UN observers in Abkhazia
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