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It looks like SSDD (Same Stuff Different Day) right now in Russia, so I'm going to lift my eyes from the headlines and do a little medium-term speculation...
I've written at length on Belarus' problems on my homepage, which you can click on above. It's run with an iron hand by President Alexander Lukashenka, affectionately nicknamed Batka ("Daddy"). He's basically, with the help of a referendum almost two years ago, emasculated the Parliament and the courts. He seems to be a precursor of what I fear for Russia. He's certainly more than willing to show how independent he is of the world, such as by having foreign journalists - Russian journalists included - arrested and beaten for covering opposition rallies. He kicked the entire foreign diplomatic corps out of their homes under the pretext of renovating them. In an eerie reminiscence of Soviet times, Belarus shot down two American balloonists which had strayed into Belarusian airspace during an international race. His appeal to many Russians is that he gets the trains running on time, and he's not seen as in the West's pocket. Belarus is indeed going through hard times - their ruble is nicknamed the "bunny rabbit" - yet Lukashenko is seen as doing things about it instead of supposedly wasting time with "frivolous" debate. This is much of the problem that I've been outlining with regard to Russia - the Russian people and officialdom do not see the Russian state as good for its word, and they do not see in the Kremlin's announcements any stable assurances for the future. With Minsk (the Belarusian capital), on the other hand, what you see is what you get and will continue to get. He doesn't have a hostile Parliament or voter blocs to deal with; whatever he says goes. This is what many Russians mean when they hanker for stability. It doesn't necessarily mean they like dictators as such; it means they want a regime which is a tad more consistent and reliable than a Magic 8-Ball. In its own foreign affairs, it seems the Kremlin might be up to its old problems again. Of course, I'm referring to Russian opposition to NATO air strikes against Serbia. Now, let me make one thing perfectly clear: it's not necessarily problematic to oppose the US or NATO. I am not anything close to an expert on Balkan affairs, so I can't say positively that we're in the right and Serbia is in the wrong, and that Russia is, by extension, in the wrong for supporting Serbia. Russia's stance is probably not wholly opportunistic: it was Russian support for Serbia - then as now ostensibly on ethnic grounds - against Austria in the wake of the assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand that sparked World War I.
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