British scientists have recently created a computer study to analyze a potential smallpox outbreak in the United States. Their results are disquieting as their model shows smallpox would spread much quicker than previous studies have indicated.
The CDC study shows a much slower rate. A rate that is half of what the British study shows. And that is a significant difference.
The problem stems from the result of naturally occurring smallpox having been eradicated in the world in 1979. As far as smallpox appearing in modern industrialized nations, there are no statistics or trends to follow. The word of the day is "theory".
The British studies said that each infected person would pass the virus on to six to 12 other people who would then repeat the infection spreading process and increase the circle of infection in the population. The CDC study states that the spread of smallpox would be slower, each victim infecting only three others and relying on vaccination to keep the infected population circle lower.
As an example, the CDC put forth the following example:
100 people are infected with smallpox in a city the size of Atlanta (population 403,000) 4200 resulting cases 1 year to bring the virus under control 1 in 4 infected people quarantined 9 million vaccinations (roughly the entire state of Georgia)
CDC experts believe the only way to contain and control a smallpox epidemic is through vaccination.
But the bottom line remains: We just don't know. Computer models are based on known facts and there is so little know about how a western industrialized nation would be affected by smallpox. Modern buildings, ventilation systems, public health awareness and mass communication are factors that can only be guessed at in these studies.
Another factor is that nationwide immunization was practiced for smallpox until 1972. It is estimated by the British that possibly 60% of those may have some protection. Again this is untested theory that would depend on many factors.
Meanwhile scientists are studying smallpox with an intensity that only the events of September 11th and the subsequent anthrax attacks, could have caused. Dealing with facts that can't be confirmed, building models on theory and facing a situation that may or may not even be possible is the order of the day in the post 9-11 world.
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