Attack Ads in 2004

Kerry will want to play off his support for anything Bush has proposed or supported by stating that it was the best available form of reform or social progress at the time. He'll be better served by saying something along these lines: "No Child Left Behind was better than nothing so that's why I supported it then but now I see where we can do better." If he continues to attack Bush first and then mention his plan second, his attacks may backfire because they'll play right into a Bush spin zone. Kerry will be portrayed as an attack guy, not as a guy with a different perception of the scene seeking legitimate change.

Bush will have to walk a fine line here. He may be able to increase his support base if he proposes changes for his programs already in place, chief among them No Child Left Behind. But he will certainly want to avoid any kind of statement that makes it seem like he made a mistake in proposing, creating, or implementing any social program he supported.

In the end, Bush will have to increase his support in liberal areas and Kerry will have to do the same in rural conservative areas. It may, however, be possible for either candidate to win the election without crossing over much, as we have seen in 2000. Bush may be able to carry enough states with a low amount of electoral votes to offset a Kerry victory in New York, Florida, or California.

Attack ads will be best served this year closer to the November election. This will ensure a period of time for a candidate to capitalize on the ads before the election. As we have seen, Ansolabehere and Iyengar contend that attack ads only strengthen existing supporters; they don't win any converts. The candidate needs to use, explain, and further elaborate upon the ads in order to accomplish that goal. The course of the nation over the next five months will dictate the necessity for any attack ads come October and November. Here, both sides will need to gauge the ferocity of any attacks before then. It is altogether likely, however, that both sides will run a venomous campaign and will disagree bitterly over the major issues. Despite their similarities, both George W. Bush and John Kerry will fight tooth and nail to win the presidency.

Any attack ads, it is almost certain,

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