Suharto Resigns
Amazingly enough, Habibie has managed to keep the nation together through the difficult transition. He is promising widespread bureaucratic reform, and has taken baby steps toward that end. He faces an uphill battle, though, since most of the web of corporate and government links surrounds Suharto and his family, which means that no change can occur without Suharto's blessings, presidency or not. So far, Suharto has been allowing the talk of reform, but whether he will allow actual reform -- which is vital to Habibie's chances of political survival -- will occur.
There are several possible scenarios for what will happen next. The most inviting option would be for Habibie to carry through on his promises of reform and hold peaceful elections. A peaceful election may be unlikely, but it is not out of the question -- the recent elections in the Philippines are an example of where Indonesia can go next. If Habibie can compose the nation enough for elections, Harmoko would certainly be a frontrunner. His political "machine," however, may not be enough to overcome the organization of Wiranto's military, or the financial resources of Tutut, or the popularity of Rais.
The Philippine example would indicate that Rais' chances are good, since he campaigns on a platform of people power much like that of Corazon Aquino. Some sort of "people power" movement is not out of the question in Indonesia. However, Rais' rallying point is a moderate Islam, and how that would affect the politics and policy of the nation is a mystery. That mystery makes Indonesia's neighbors -- as well as its non-Muslim minority populace -- a bit nervous.
Another possible scenario is the ever-present threat of a military takeover becoming reality. With Prabowo out of the way, there is no counterweight to Wiranto's dominance of the military. If Wiranto really wanted the Presidency, he could take it by force more easily than Suharto did in the 1960s. It seems that Wiranto is a patriot, which is both good and bad. Optimistically, we could say that he cares less about his own power than his nation. He could have defended Suharto's rule with brutal and deadly force during the riots, creating a scenario like Tienanmen Square. For the moment, he is throwing his muscle behind Habibie, and allowing him to have a chance to do the right thing for the nation.
But there is a lot of reason to be pessimistic
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