Busy Boris' Bear Hugs


© Jason Gottlieb

The picture that was splashed around the world this week would have sent American policy analysts into apoplectic fits if it were taken ten years ago: the president of Russia, Boris Yeltsin, and the president of China, Jiang Zemin, locked in a bearhug. It was the classic case of the unstoppable force -- a big, tall, robust and happy-looking Yeltsin, member of a culture that exchanges kisses as greetings -- meeting the immovable object -- a smaller, impassive, and tired-looking Jiang, member of a culture that bowed slightly as greetings, until 50 years of Communist rule stripped even that show of respect from its formal matters. The winner of a collision between the unstoppable force and the immovable object is a matter for physicists and philosophers, but the political ramifications of their meeting will be a lot of contact, a lot of friction, and a lot of sparks.

For the moment, though, the meeting between Yeltsin and Jiang seems to have generated nothing but warmth. The two nations, separated by a 2,800-mile common border over which there has been occasional armed conflicts over the past three decades, have decided to sign a treaty to finalize the border geography once and for all. They also spoke about how to further the anemic levels of trade between them, not expected this year to reach the relatively low $7 billion level they met in 1996. (Comparatively, China's 1996 trade with Japan was $60 billion.) The two sides have set a target of annual trade of $20 billion by 2000, but one component of this trade is troubling. Russia's major export to China, unfortunately, is military hardware that the cash-starved but weapons-rich Russian army is selling in order to feed its soldiers. While this does help Russia feed its hungry (and armed, and therefore potentially dangerous) mouths, it also furthers China's military prowess. Currently, China's army is gigantic in terms of manpower, but no real threat due to its ancient and poorly maintained equipment. The military hardware it obtains from Russia lifts its military readiness a notch or two, even if it still has dozens of notches to go before it can accomplish even modest goals. But Boris' visit will help ensure that China's newfound military strength will be pointed well away from the Bear.

Boris was not busy just in Beijing this month, though. He also held a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Hashimoto Ryutaro in the Russian city of Krasnoyarsk (about halfway between Tokyo and Moscow). It might not have been a bear hug, but Yeltsin and Hashimoto stood arm in arm, vigorously shaking hands in the lightly falling snow, after announcing the similarly hopeful results of their summit.

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