China and the Next President
Obviously, declaring that the United States would not intervene in a Chinese military action against Taiwan would be an effective green light for invasion. But publicly declaring that the United States would intervene is unnecessary and overly aggressive, serving nobody but the unsophisticated electorate who believes that China is our enemy, the new evil empire. The better policy is more private, more subtle pressure on China. If China learns behind closed doors that the United States would intervene, the same effect will be conveyed, and China will not invade. At the same time, such a quiet message would not pressure China into stepping up to some sort of response as a defensive face-saving measure.
For Bush, it was a valiant attempt to pander to his constituents -- particularly, the Christian right, who thinks of China as (in Bush's words) an "enemy of religious freedom and a sponsor of forced abortion." By denouncing China, Bush can rally the Christian right without frightening mainstream America, as he would if he began stumping hard against abortion in the United States. But while this move might have been politically savvy for his election chances, it risks angering China for absolutely no good reason. If Bush really did not fear China's ire, he would push some different, more hostile policies that really back up what he claims to stand for.
The Christian right is influential in other Republican campaigns, notably that of Steve Forbes. He ran in 1996, losing early and badly to Bob Dole, when he stood for engagement and trade with China. This time around, with stronger backing from the anti-China Christian Coalition, Forbes stands against Chinese engagement, and has been issuing invective on China's human rights record. Marginal candidate Gary Bauer, who essentially is the face of the Christian Coalition, has stronger words on China, including sanctions for its practices of "forced abortion." And the ultra-conservative Pat Buchanan goes even further, calling for a blockade of China. Luckily, these three campaigns are correctly perceived by the American public as extreme and slightly nutty, and not just for their China policy, so the likelihood that these disastrous policies would be enacted are remote. The other remaining Republican candidates, John McCain and Orrin Hatch, have similar stances on China, calling for the current status quo situation of trade engagement, and not making any other grand statements.
On the Democratic side, Vice President Al Gore has the strongest
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