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China and the Next President

© Jason Gottlieb

Generally speaking, Americans don't care much about foreign policy. Especially after the Cold War, during which the Soviet Union was the extent of American foreign interest, the areas outside American borders are perceived to be a morass of small issues concerning mysterious areas where American interests are shaky. Right now, China is probably the biggest exception. Whether Americans think of China as an enemy that abuses human rights, or just the place cheap toys and clothes come from, most Americans think that relations with China are fairly important. With the 2000 Presidential elections around the corner, the hopefuls have lined up to espouse their views on China. What has been offered is a morass of small issues voiced mysteriously.

The Republican side is the most interesting to watch, if only for its ill-informed fractiousness. And the most interesting candidate is the one most likely to win the nomination, George W. Bush. Unfortunately for America, Bush is clearly in over his head when talking about East Asian policy, particularly in dealing with China. The pop quiz he was given on November 15 on the names of foreign leaders was one that few Americans, even relatively well-versed Americans, would pass (although missing the name of the leader of India, the world's largest democracy, was inexcusable). The one fraction of a name he got right was that of Taiwan's leader, Lee Teng-hui (of which Bush got "Lee"). Bush's stance on China sounds impressive, but really is different from current policy in one way, and that way is a step backwards.

Bush promised to deal with China "without illusions," saying that "China is a competitor, not a strategic partner." With this, Bush had hoped to draw the battle lines between himself and the Clinton-Gore administration. So, what were Bush's concrete policy prescriptions? "Keeping our pledge to deter aggression against the Republic of Korea and strengthening security ties with Japan. This means expanding theater missile defenses among our allies." These are all good policies. So good, in fact, that the current administration is already carrying them out. Bush wanted to make a distinction between himself and Clinton-Gore, but these "distinctions" are no different than current policy.

Bush's only significant deviation from current policy was to make explicit what the past few administrations had purposefully kept implicit. Bush stated majestically, "We do not deny there is one China. But we deny the right of Beijing to impose their rule on a free people. As I've said before, we will help Taiwan to defend itself." This grand pronouncement was ill-advised and counterproductive. Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Reagan had all employed a sort of "strategic ambiguity" about the China-Taiwan situation. This ambiguity is the correct policy for the time being.

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