Interfet
a terrible one. The weak economy has led to instability in other areas of Indonesia as well, and further economic hardship would only lead to a less stable Indonesia. The country needs more money now, not less. And the idea that the government could stop the killing raises the question of how to do so without sending its own troops through the streets.
That problem also begs the question of the ambiguous relationship between the official Indonesian military and the Timorese militias. On the face of things, the official military is being as cooperative as possible. Major-General Kiki Syahnakri, the martial law commander in the region, pledged to pull his troops out as the Australian-led UN force enters. Australian Major-General Peter Cosgrove thanked Syahnakri and the military for its "first-class" help in arranging the logistics. But the underlying issue remains. The militia is getting its weapons from somewhere, and there aren't a lot of corner stores legally selling automatic weapons on the streets of Dili. The abundance of guns has created a well-armed militia, which presents a high degree of risk for the peacekeepers. And of course, reports of actual military troops on the rampage only undercuts official promises of safety and cooperation.
Because of the threats from militia leaders, this United Nations mission has an unusually strong mandate for self-defense. Both the Australians and the Americans have warned that the peacekeepers will take "all necessary means" to defend themselves from attack. Such warnings are being coupled with expectations of casualties among the peacekeepers. Australian Prime Minister John Howard and Singapore's former leader Lee Kuan Yew have both told their countries that they expected some conflict between their troops and the militias. But the high-level messages that the peacekeepers are prepared to be peace enforcers are meant to keep the militia wondering as to how sharp the peacekeeping teeth really are.
The likelihood of success for the mission will depend greatly on that fear, along with a simple show of strength. Australia is expected to bring over 4,000 troops eventually, bringing the total force to about 8,000, but this might not be enough. The best way to demonstrate the resolve of the Interfet force would be an overwhelming show of strength, which would underline the ability and willingness of the mission to take the necessary measures of self-defense. The best chance the peacekeepers have of avoiding skirmishes is to come with so
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