Live Free and/or Die
the entire country, plunging the region into a chaos that would make the breakup of the Soviet Union seem like a Pollyanna-ish dream. The military, long inculcated with patriotism, law, and order, will do its utmost to keep Indonesia whole -- risking tearing it apart in the process.
A peace deal in East Timor could also depend on its first ruler. Currently in jail, revolutionary leader Xanana Gusmao looks like an obvious choice to become the first leader of an independent East Timor. But he might be a better revolutionary than a leader, and any new leader will have some serious issues to tackle. If Xanana cannot deal with the region's instability and troubles, then Timor's immediate future could be more violent than its immediate past.
Despite initial unwillingness, the Indonesian government has relented and allowed for United Nations peacekeeping troops to enter the region. The United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET) will do well to keep the peace, but only if there is peace to keep. It is not, after all, a peace-making force. UN peacekeeping missions are generally good at mediating between two sides that both want a peaceful solution, as in the Western Sahara. Such missions are less skilled at handling two sides that genuinely want to fight, such as in Somalia.
UN special envoy Jamsheed Marker said, "Whatever the outcome of the ballot, today the eagle of liberty has spread its proud wings over the people of East Timor and nothing by the grace of God can ever take them away." Another Timorese resident shared in the rhetoric by saying, "I am very happy, but scared. This is a proud day for East Timor. This is our right. We have waited a long time for this day. Scared or dead, it's our choice to choose." He might be right on both counts. Many Timorese have paid, and are paying, for this right with their lives.
The cry "live free or die" has long been a call to rally independence forces. Anti-independence militias are placing an uncomfortable stress on the latter choice. The future of the province rests both with its currently jailed future leader, but in the hands of a military man whose motives and desires are opaque at best. The eagle of liberty has yet to spread its wings.
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