One week Governor George W. Bush leads Vice-President Al Gore in a poll for president by 16 percentage points. The next week, another poll has Gore ahead. Even allowing for typical poll differences, the number of people queried, whether registered or likely votes are questioned, and "bounces" following political conventions, the electorate seems particularly fickle and volatile. There appears to be no dominant issues that resonate across the country to focus attention on the presidential race. Frankly, only the politically fixated are paying close attention at this point. What then can we expect in November?
Ultimately, the election is decided in the Electoral College, so an examination of historical propensities is illuminating. Each state is awarded one elector for every senator or representative they have in Congress. With the three electors allowed the District of Columbia, electors total 538. Winning requires a majority of 270. If no one receives a majority, the House of Representatives elected this fall decides the winner.
When a candidate wins a majority in a state, no matter how tiny the margin, that candidate gains all the electors from the state. Therefore, delegate-rich states like California with 54 electoral votes, New York with 33 votes, or Texas with 32 votes, earn particular attention from prospective presidents.
The popular vote can be very different from the electoral vote. In 1876, the Democratic candidate Samuel Tilden won the popular vote, but lost in the Electoral College by a single vote 185-184 to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes. In 1860, Republican Abraham Lincoln won only 40% of the popular vote, but garnered 59% of the electors. Democrats have benefited from Electoral College peculiarities as well. In 1912, in a three-way race between Woodrow Wilson, Theodore Roosevelt, and Howard Taft, Wilson received a plurality of 42% of the popular vote, but earned a decisive 82% majority of the Electoral College.
The current distribution of votes in the Electoral College seems to benefit Republicans. Consider the last six elections since Jimmy Carter's victory in 1976. We start by assuming that Republicans or Democrats can typically count on a state if that state has gone their way five or more times in the last six elections or if that state had gone their way four out of six times including the last two times.
Alaska for example has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in the last six elections, while Minnesota demonstrates the same loyalty to Democrats. Nevada has voted for the Democrats in four of six elections and voted for Clinton in the last two elections. Nevada, by our criteria, falls into the Democratic camp. If we add up the "sure" states, we arrive at 154 electors for the Republicans and 76 for the Democrats. The quest for 37.4% of remaining contested electors the Republicans need and the 62.6% Democrats need is the story of the election.
Go To Page: 1 2
| Here's the follow-up discussion on this article: | View all related messages |
For a complete listing of article comments, questions, and other discussions related to Frank Monaldo's Conservative Politics topic, please visit the Discussions page.