Republicans are desperately clinging to a slim six-seat majority in the House of Representatives, less than 2% of the total 435 representatives. It will take only a very small switch in seats to sweep House Republicans out of power or to cement in a far more comfortable majority than six. The small percentage shift that is required to upset the House is less than the stated statistical confidence in many polls. The predictive value of polls will be severely tested as will the patience and nerves of political operatives.
Republicans have a more comfortable percentage majority in the Senate 55 to 45, but the race in New York between Hillary Rodam Clinton and the probable Republican candidate New York Mayer Rudolph Giuliani promises months of high political entertainment. This race may draw enough national attention to raise the temperature of elections across the country. Though Republicans will have to regain two open (non-incumbent) Senate seats in Rhode Island and Florida, they will likely retain control of the Senate.
With no presidential incumbent, the presidential election is still quite open. Faced with intransigent Democratic Congresses during the Reagan and Bush Administrations, Republicans mistakenly believed in the historical dominance of the legislative branch. Control of the legislature is important, but in the modern age it seems that the political dynamic is now focussed on the executive branch. The longing for a presidential win is a partial explanation of George W. Bush's popularity among the Republican establishment. He has the smell of a winner unencumbered by ideological baggage. If Bush surges past challengers early enough, the internal ideological debates that enervate the party may abate.
Two other factors not normally considered raise the stakes in the 2000 election. The three oldest members of the court, Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist (74), Justice Sandra Day O'Connor (68), and Justice John Paul Stevens (78) were all appointed by Republicans. If a Republican president is elected, Conservatives will be able to maintain the current ideological balance and perhaps shift it slightly to the right. A Democratic president will have an important opportunity to shift the court radically to the left, permitting political victories difficult or impossible to achieve by electoral persuasion.
Go To Page: 1 2
