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Baby Boom Echo Reverbates

© Frank Monaldo

VIRTUALLY ALL LARGE demographic changes have significant political and cultural implications. The "baby boom" following World War II is not only well known, but has been studied continuously. Even now the baby boom continues to have effects. In large measure the challenge of social security in next century is a consequence of the aging of these boomers.

The baby boom is also having delayed secondary effects. Baby boomers have grown up, though not all have matured to adults. Boomers have shed beads and bell-bottom pants for suits and skirts, married and divorced, moved to the suburbs, had children, coached soccer teams, joined the local PTA, and paid for braces. In short, they have raised the next generation. The children of baby boomers constitute the "baby boom echo," the somewhat smaller but still significant bulge in the age distribution of the population.

Baby boomers in many ways hold a privileged position in our culture. The baby boom generation wrested American popular music from their parents. They have not yet relinquished control to their children. This modest self-indulgence accounts for the continued popularity of the Rolling Stones and oldies radio stations.

The conventional wisdom has it that "soccer moms," largely baby boomer moms, eager to see the government aid families raise these echo children helped elect President Clinton. Some saw the government as a replacement for fathers liberated by the 1960s from their traditional responsibilities. Clinton, the ever empathetic, felt the anguish and pain of all those frazzled mothers scurrying between work and home during the week and assuaging guilt by hauling echo kids to soccer tournaments on weekends. Perhaps the presence of these echo children will alter politics.

The echo children are just now beginning to enter college. The graph from the Department of Education shown here represents past and projected college enrollment. There was an enrollment dip in the early 1980s. Enrollment increased in the late 1980s, leveled off in the early 1990s, and is now projected to increase significantly and rapidly over the next decade.

Already the consequences of this enrollment increase are apparent at universities. Elite colleges have become even more selective turning away larger numbers of applicants. The better state schools now have the leverage to become more selective. For example, the mean SAT score at the University of Maryland, a good but traditionally second-tier college, has increased 40 points in two years. The average GPA of incoming freshman has increased from 3.2 in 1993 to 3.7 in 1999. Incoming students with SAT scores in the 1300s used to own the place. Now the mean SAT score of honors students is 1410. There is greater competition for fewer spots. Schools need not offer as many scholarships to attract top students.

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