Republican Quest for African-American Votes

Two of the most reliable predictors of voting behavior are at war with one another. How can the apparent contradiction be explained?

The National Survey of Religion and Politics by the University of Akron compared church attendance, as a rough proxy for religiosity, with voting patterns. They found that those who attend church or temple more than once a week voted for George Bush in 2000 by a margin of 68% to 32%. Those who never attended church cast their votes for Al Gore 60% to 35%. Now the survey clearly shows that there are people who attend church regularly that voted for Gore and people who refrain from formal religious observances who voted for Bush. However, the trend is unmistakable. The more likely one is to attend religious services and for whom presumably religion provides normative guidance were more comfortable voting for Bush. Perhaps the Democratic Party's positions in favor of abortion, gay rights, and the party's close connection with those in Hollywood associated with cultural decadence and decline make many religious people uncomfortable.

On the other hand, African-Americans have significantly higher church attendance rates than white Americans yet vote almost exclusively Democratic. In 2000, Gore received 90% of the votes of African-Americans and that result is unlikely to change in 2004. Democrats have been the party of government, and government programs for the disadvantaged disproportionately aid black Americans. It is, therefore, not surprising that Democrats are able to garner a majority of votes of African-Americans, but the 90% figure seems irrational. It is hard to imagine how similar unanimity on any other issue in any other community could be achieved. It is hard to get 90% of any group to even agree on the time of day.

African-Americans may benefit from government programs, but they also suffer disproportionately from the burdens of terrible public schools in the inner cities. Democrats are so beholden to teachers' unions that they are unwilling to grant black Americans the freedom to opt out of failing government-run schools. In African-American communities, local churches often provide social services. African-Americans, therefore, would benefit from President Bush's faith-based initiative where public services delivered at churches could be partially financed by the government. Moreover, socially conservative black Americans who attend church regularly might be uncomfortable with the Democrats' absolute commitment to even late-term abortions. Reason would suggest that these factors alone should be able to swing more than 10% of African-American voters to Bush.

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