Eye on Edwards

Traditional political wisdom adheres to the Caligula Theory of Presidential Politics, named after the first century Roman Emperor noted for viciousness and ruthless cruelty. The central tenet of the theory is that if either major political party nominated Caligula for president, Caligula would still get a third of the vote as a consequence of party loyalty. The real competition in a presidential campaign is for the relatively independent and moderate middle third. A corollary of this theory is that in the nomination process, candidates move to the Left or Right, depending on party, to secure the nomination from the ideologically motivated partisans. Once nominated, candidates race to the center to grab the moderate votes necessary for victory.

This year some political analysts are wondering out loud whether this theory is no longer valid. What if the electorate has been thoroughly polarized so that we are a 50-50 country? The winner may not be the one who appeals to the center, but the one who energizes his partisans the most and generates the greatest turnout. Forget the center and just pump up your partisans until they explode all over the polls.

This latter theory was dealt a blow last week with the unexpectedly poor showing of Howard Dean in Iowa after he led in the polls for so long. There is little doubt, that Dean has still captured the angry anti-Bush vote. However, one consequence is that Dean has developed a reputation for meanness and rashness. Giving voice to an unsubstantiated theory that President George Bush had advance knowledge of the 9/11 attacks, is reckless and indecent. When Iowa Democrats began to seriously consider Dean they were chafed by his abrasiveness. They began to doubt whether they wanted Dean to be periodically visiting their living rooms for at least the next four years through the medium of television.

We should add a note of caution here. Perhaps the new conventional wisdom is wrong about Dean. If the rest of the country does not share the uncomfortable feeling of Iowans, perhaps Dean could now be immunized from future criticism of intemperance. Much like the Clinton campaign dismissed womanizing issues as old news after the 1992 New Hampshire primary, a Dean campaign could say that the issue of rashness has already been dealt with.

Conservative commentator Charles Krauthammer was lamenting this week that the democratic process had succeeded in weeding out the most unelectable candidate. He was "hoping against hope that he [Dean] could just hang on - project sanity - long enough to win Iowa and New Hampshire and wrap up the nomination before the Democrats could come to their senses." There may still be hope for Krauthammer.

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