It used to be that all a commander needed to know about the economic conditions and strength of his opponent was the basics: size of the economy, per capita wealth, internal distribution and infrastructure, types of defense industries and their locations, supply lines, major imports and exports, etc. But with the end of World War II, and certainly since the end of the Cold War, many military planners now want to know more. They want to know what makes a country grow economically.
Indeed, this has been an issue of study among economists for centuries. Today, however, the level of research in this area is greater than it has ever been. And the United States military is taking notice. Secretary of Defense William Cohen established the National Security Strategy Group in July 1998. Their main goal is to research the linkage between freedom and progress. That is, are countries that are less economically and politically free more likely to have less overall progress, both politically and economically, than countries with more freedom. Other countries, such as Great Britain, China, and even Russia, already are beginning to study such issues.
The main goal, it seems, is to implement an analysis tool that can help predict and explain future areas of conflict in the future. In that regard, the field of international economic intelligence is a growing one. While many private corporations and international investment firms have been conducting such analysis for decades, military strategists just now are beginning their own research.
While few people expect this field to be solely predictive, or even completely successful in predicting future conflict, many do expect the research to help military strategists develop more sound and successful battle plans. Their hope is to better prepare forward-deployed forces for potential conflicts in or nearby their duty stations. Still, even after decades of experience studying economic and political risk overseas, most international investment firms failed to predict the Asian financial crisis. This is a good lesson for any military planner using the new field of economic research that is emerging: no matter how good your research is, predicting future events still is mainly guess work, albeit better informed guesswork.
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