Fantasy Race Handicaping Made Simple

There are many different FANTASY RACING games out there with different scoring rules. A few years ago I decided that if I was to improve my race handicapping that I better learn how to dissect the stats better. Growing up as a horse race enthusiast, I decided to apply the same simple rules on past performances to the stock car races. My handicapping skills improved although just like in the horse race game it never hurts to play that hunch!! If you apply the following basic rules hopefully your handicapping will improve also.

RULE ONE: WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY NASCAR teams seem to run hot and cold at times. Once a new team gels and finally wins a race they often gain confidence and go on quite a run of success. I like to look at the last 5 races run and apply a simple formula to dissect the stats. I award 5 pts for a win, 2pts for a top five, 1pt for a top ten, and subtract 1pt for any finish worse than 25th. I find this works better than simple AVG finish stats since many games award bonus points for picking the winner.

RULE TWO: HORSES FOR COURSES A simple rule my Dad taught me during frequent trips to the harness races in Chicago. Some tracks just suit a different drivers style or ability. I like to go back to the last 5 races at the track the race is being run and apply the same point formula as I explained in rule one. If a driver is involved that has had less than five races at a track I average his results as if he has had five races there. In the case of a rookie who has never run at a track we lack the stats to adequately analyze his prospects.

I usually add the two point totals together to get a consensus TOP TEN. This will average out a drivers current past performances with his ability on the particular track coming up. With a consensus TOP TEN in front of me, I then apply a few subjective rules to arrive at my top picks for the week.

RULE THREE: EQUIPMENT CHANGE This is another rule that is a result of my horse race handicapping background. (Thanks Dad) In horse racing, a trainer of a skittish horse might add BLINKERS or a SHADOW ROLL to help improve his performance. In stock car racing simple things like a change of teams or perhaps an improvement in the motor department might show us a sleeper. Likewise, a negative change might drop someone out of contention for my TOP FIVE. I

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