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The New Red Machine

© Bryan Walker

It’s almost May and who’s in first and second place in the National League Central? The Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates, respectively. There’s a lot of season left, of course, but these two teams were probably not at the top of anyone’s list of National League contenders. The Reds are in first place without Ken Griffey, Jr. and have actually played all but seven games without him.

So what’s gone right for the Reds? And can they sustain their winning ways?

At the plate, the Reds have reason for a great deal of optimism. The only Reds player in the top ten of any major offensive category is Adam Dunn (7th in OBP and 10th in walks.) After his slow start, Dunn is taking his place among the top young offensive players in the game. His OBP is .430 and OPS is .903.

Sean Casey is also playing well, batting .310, but has no homers in 77 AB. Of course, getting a beanball in the head could be a factor in his power shortage. By the end of the season, we’ll see a .310 BA, 85-95 RBI, and 15-20 HR.

The real offensive spark-plug has been Detroit castoff, Juan Encarnacion. Encarnacion was dealt to the Reds in exchange for Dmitri Young. So far the Reds got the upper hand in the deal with Encarnacion’s 6 home runs and 18 RBI while replacing Griffey in centerfield.

The only other consistent offensive contributors are part-time players, Wilton Guererro and Ruben Mateo, both with OPS over .800.

One positive result of the Griffey injury was giving Austin Kearns a chance to play everyday in right field. Kearns is one of the top outfield prospects in all baseball and currently has an OPS of 1.226 after 30 AB. When Griffey comes back, Kearns will most likely keep his position.

So with Dunn, Griffey, and Kearns in the outfield, where does Encarnacion play? Well, if he’s no longer playing well, bench him. If he is playing well, trade him for pitching. Or something along those lines.

So of these players, which can be expected to continue their success? Dunn has a ceiling high enough that he could actually improve. Casey can be expected to supply more power to the offense. Encarnation has never played this well before, so we can expect him to come back to earth sometime most likely, but if Griffey returns from injury, he could easily replace any offense that is lost by Encarnation. Kearns and Dunn could be All-Stars for the Reds for the next few years.

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