The answer is not that difficult really. It comes down to being a very good observer. You learn about the people you play as you are sitting there. You observe their idiosyncracies, their style, their rhythm, and their patterns. Taken together, these observations allow some people to be able to take advantage within the game of poker where knowing who you are playing with matters almost as much as the cards you are dealt.
With this in mind, the negotiation process in the Middle East, Northern Ireland, and between Taiwan and China can all be compared to a high-stakes poker match; albeit with a few twists. The players all know what cards are in their hands, but they face shifting constituencies that may take away their power base at home at a crucial time in the negotiation process, or they have an opponent who has studied their every move for years and knows the other participants tendencies.
Knowing a person's tendencies is crucial in poker because you can sense when someone is bluffing and when someone is really holding that royal flush. In the Middle East, the royal flush is not likely to happen, but the stakes are incredibly high. Bloodshed, war, and terrorism are a constant reminder of what can happen if the parties fail to read the signals that the other parties are sending.
The current Israeli move to extricate itself out of Southern Lebanon is a wonderful example of how a country can put itself in a no-win situation. Israel went into Southern Lebanon with the perfectly valid intention of securing its northern frontier from terrorist shelling and missile attacks by Hezbullah guerillas. In the years since the invasion, hundreds of Israeli soldiers, and an untold number of Lebanese civilians and militiamen have died and been injured in continued fighting. Now Israel seeks to pull out of the self-declared security zone potentially in a unilateral manner so that Hezbullah could potentially jump into the vacuum. It also means that the Syrians, the prime power broker in Southern Lebanon, would be in a tremendous position to exert its will on the upcoming peace talks with Israel.
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