Is Syria Serious and Other Questions...

A recent poll at the Jerusalem Post website asked the question whether President Assad is willing to make true peace with Israel in return for the Golan Heights. Based on the early indications of the poll, the answer would be a resounding no. I would suggest that there is good reason to be distrustful of Syria, but that if it were in Syria's best interests to make true peace, they would.

President Assad is one of the most cunning and ruthless leaders of a country in the world. He has managed to overcome and quash rebellious elements in Syrian society and keeps his military on a very tight leash. However, he is quite aware of the necessity to open up his economy and gain needed dollars and revenue. If he has to balance the dividend from demilitarizing the boundary with Israel with the added benefits of opening up its markets and improving the standard of living, Assad may be willing to move in this direction. However, it would likely take a substantial influx of economic aid from the US or EC to make this a reality as Assad wouldn't make this deal unless it was sufficiently laced with incentives. For its part, Israel would likely insist on serious economic incentives to make peace with Syria in addition to the military and security protections that would be lost in giving up the Golan Heights.

Meanwhile, the Israeli government continues to warn the Palestinian Authority regarding what may happen should the Palestinians declare an independent state in May with Jerusalem as its capital. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was noted as saying that Israel would respond forcefully should the Palestinians declare Jerusalem as its capital. However, there was news that negotiators for the Palestinians and Israelis were able to work through details so that the stalled peace process could move forward. Both Israeli and Palestinian sources have suggested that another Palestinian prisoner release would be upcoming and could move both sides back to the table.

While this suggests that the peace process may move forward again, the continuing debate over the final status of Jerusalem is far from over. Both Israel and the Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital and both are likely willing to pay in blood for that claim. It is unfortunate that a city holy to the three major monotheistic religions would be the battleground over which two of the three would choose to display their religious fervor in a most horrible fashion.

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