Power Brokers in the Middle East

After a long silence in Middle East affairs, it appears that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has come back into the fray. He has recently come forward in trying to get the Palestinian-Israeli peace process back on track and has sought to have a three-way Palestinian-Jordanian-Egyptian meeting in Amman, Jordan during the month of Ramadan. This meeting would flesh out the Palestinian position and could signal a more flexible response to the Israeli elections that are set to occur May 17, 1999. That date is key as the Oslo Accords set May 4, 1999, as the date for a final implementation of land transfers to the Palestinian Authority to be enacted. In the past several months, Yasir Arafat has stated that the Palestinian Authority will declare statehood on May 4, 1999, much to the consternation of Israeli and American officials.

Once again, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has been able to thwart US and British intentions in the region by continuing to defy UN and US efforts to constrain his military industrial complex. In recent weeks, the Iraqis have stepped up their insistence that the no-fly zones enacted following the Persian Gulf war are illegal and void as a matter of international law and have resumed flights and military actions within the two zones. It would appear that Hussein has been quite successful in driving a wedge between the US and British governments and the Russians, French and Chinese who feel that the recent bombing campaign was unjust and uncalled for.

This matter complicates the situation as Hussein continues to delay and defeat UN inspector efforts to locate and catalog Iraqi efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction. The Arab nations have been quite reserved in their statements relating to Iraq as they understand the importance of keeping a close watch on the Iraqi military (once one of the largest and best supplied in the world). At the same time, they have to show solidarity with their Arab brethren who are oppressed at the hands of the UN embargo on Iraq that continues to harm Iraqi citizens after 8 years of sanctions that prevent the free flow of goods and services into Iraq.

Meanwhile, within Israel there are ultra orthodox groups that appear to be wielding tremendous amounts of power to the extent that they are almost single-handedly derailing the peace process with the Palestinians. The ultra-religious groups have been so successful in derailing a coherent foreign policy and the peace process with the Palestinians that the Knesset has called for new elections in May to elect a new prime minister. These groups were able to pressure the Netanyahu government into allowing construction to be expanded in the West Bank. New settlements are being constructed outside Jerusalem to house ultra-Orthodox Jewish settlers as well as expanding existing settlements. The location and size of these settlements will only complicate matters as it appears that the Netanyahu government is trying to change the facts on the ground to make transfer of this territory to Palestinian control almost impossible without major displacement of Israeli citizens who have strong religious ties to the land of "Greater Israel."

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