New Year's Predictions Revisited

As 1998 comes to a close, it is time to review how the past year went and whether my predictions were close or not. Bringing in the New Year is where I predicted:

... (C)ontinued problems between Iraq and its neighbors as Iraqi President Hussein will try to test the limits of embargos and other national leaders as he tries to bring his country out from under the UN embargo.

Well, this totally didn't take a rocket scientist to predict as Saddam Hussein tried to push the UN to lift sanctions at least 4 different times during the year and not to mention his thumbing his nose at the US every time he thwarted UNSCOM efforts to find traces of his weapons plans. Hussein was like clockwork in his attempts to get out from under the sanctions and his actions spoke louder than words as inspectors continued to find traces of chemical weapons in places that should have been clear.

The US will try and improve relations with Iran and there will be a thaw in relations between the two countries, but not to the point of normalizing relations.

This too appeared to have been accurate as Iran and the US continue to inch closer to having detente. Better relations between Iran and the US are going to be hampered by fundamentalists and hard liners within the Iranian government that oppose relations with the US even though President Khatami has tried inching closer to the US and normalization of relations.

The peace process will continue to inch along and the US will have a difficult time of trying to convince Israel to make concessions, especially as Israel will press their security concerns as a way to reduce the amount of land transferred to the Palestinians. The Palestinian Authority will continue to maintain that Israel isn't abiding by the Oslo Accords and that failure to abide by the agreements will result in further violence that is beyond the Palestinian Authority's control.

A no brainer! The Israelis and Palestinians end the year much as they began it; with lost opportunities and more blood on their respective hands. Any progress that could have come about from the Wye Plantation Accords has gone out the window as the Israelis have tried to attach new conditions on transferring land to the Palestinians and the Palestinian Authority continues to drag its feet on security issues. Neither side has lived up to the Oslo Accords and with the May 1999 deadline for full compliance looming, things will be looking mighty grim unless someone steps forward and takes the initiative to do something positive in the face of a loud and violent minority that doesn't want any concessions at all.

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