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Commentary: Prospects for Peace in the Middle East

© Rick Francona

In the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks against the United States, there has been renewed focus of what is going on in the almost dead Middle East peace process. Normally that phrase is rendered with the words peace process in capital letters, but that tends to indicate an ongoing viable course of action. Unfortunately, it is not.

The peace process has been essentially dead since the failure of previous Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak to secure an agreement between his government and the Palestinian National Authority under Yasir 'Arafat. The generous Barak proposal made last year to the Palestinians was rejected because it did not address the issue of Jerusalem to the satisfaction of Yasir 'Arafat.

In what came as a surprise to Middle East analysts, Al-Qaidah leader Usamah Bin Ladin attempted to tie his terrorist acts to the Palestinian issue, a tactic that worked well for Iraq's Saddam Husayn during the Gulf crisis and war of 1990 and 1991. 'Arafat wisely saw through this and has attempted to distance himself from the perpetrators of the attacks of September 11.

For almost a year and a half, there has been violence in the Israeli-occupied territories of the West Bank and the Gaza strip, called the "new intifadhah". Neither the Clinton nor Bush administrations paid any real attention to the violence and death knell of the peace process. In the aftermath of September 11, it appears that the government has sought to address the poor perception of America in the region. However, the timing could not be worse, and the choice of envoys could have been better.

As to the timing, the best chance for a peaceful resolution passed a year ago. In 1999, Ehud Barak was elected prime minister on the first ballot, theretofore unheard of, constituting a mandate to make peace with the Palestinian Authority. However, 'Arafat could not restrain the Palestinian groups opposing any deal with Israel and violence erupted. The violence became so bad that the subsequent elections saw the overwhelming election of extreme Likud hard-liner Ariel Sharon. The election of Sharon in no uncertain terms reversed the mandate given to Barak. The new mandate repudiated any overtures to the Palestinians and backed the hard-line position of the Likud party.

The message from the Israeli electorate was clear: End the violence, put down the intifadhah. Sharon has set about doing just that. Under his direction, there has been a new wave of authorized assassinations, utilizing the excellent information produced by Israel's intelligence services. The latest assassination, that of Mahmud Abu Hanud, the military leader of the Islamic Resistance Movement, more commonly known as Hamas, caused an uproar that has not yet subsided.

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