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Commentary – DEBKA Report: “Iraq's war move in Jordan”

© Rick Francona

Last week, DEBKA, an Israel-based news and analysis service, issued a report titled, "Iraq's war move in Jordan". To the reader with little familiarity of the political situation in the Middle East, the report sounds like a major conflagration is imminent. To the experienced Middle East reader, the report appears to sensationalist and blown out of proportion.

In summary, the report alleges:

Saddam Husayn has secretly dispatched Iraqi troops into Jordan en route to the West Bank to fight the Israelis alongside the Palestinians. Jordanian troops, supported by Royal Jordanian Air Force aircraft, unsuccessfully attempted to repel the Iraqi troops. Large numbers of Iraqi aircraft also responded to the Jordanian planes. Jordanian ground reconnaissance units entered Iraq and found large Iraqi troop concentrations moving towards Jordan. Iraqi forces have also entered Syria and were moving toward the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Questionable claims

This is sensationalism that has the potential to be dangerous. There are enough red flags in this report that would cause someone familiar with the politics of the Middle East to question the validity of it, but to the casual reader it would appear that we are on the brink of a major regional war. The U.S. Embassy in Amman has no reports of any of this alleged activity.

Just a few of the things that call the report into question:

The incursion was detected by Israeli reconnaissance planes and the Ofek 3 and 5 spy satellites. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon immediately dispatched high-ranking Israeli army intelligence officers to Amman to show King 'Abdullah II of Jordan the evidence of the Iraqi penetration to his kingdom.

Most observers believe that the OFEK 5 reconnaissance satellite has not even been launched, and Israeli reconnaissance aircraft do not routinely operate over Jordan. Jordan is quite capable of determining if Israeli forces had crossed the border.

Jordanian fighter planes sent into action were met by dozens of Iraqi fighters, put up over the penetration regions, from Al-Baghdadi, the main Iraqi air base in the central region.... Israeli reconnaissance aircraft, under the umbrella of Israeli fighter planes, flew into Jordanian airspace.

U.S forces conducting patrols in the northern and southern no-fly zones would have detected this and reported it. It is doubtful that engagements of this size would remain secret for long, nor would the entry of Israeli reconnaissance and fighter aircraft over Jordan at all, and particularly not as far east as the Iraqi border.

Map

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Saddam Husayn

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