Trimble was skittish about all this. According to some published reports, he was about to reject the deal when the British minister for Northern Ireland, Peter Mandelson, intervened and convinced him to put it to a vote of the UUP's ruling council. If this 800-odd body backed the deal, Trimble would have the support he needed to drop the "guns before government" demand. He agreed, and a weeklong battle for the hearts and minds of these 800 suddenly very powerful people was begun.
Trimble and his supporters argued that the only way they would ever see IRA disarmament would be to form the government, let politics proceed, and put the IRA to the test. Trimble said that he believed the IRA would begin to disarm shortly after formation of the executive, and announced that he would reconvene the UUP body in February. If the IRA had not begun some process of disarmament by then, he would resign from the executive and the new political structures would collapse.
This appeared to settle the nerves of many in his party, and Trimble won last Monday's crucial vote with about 59% support. Consequently, on Tuesday November 30 the long-awaited executive was formed, and on Thursday power will officially be devolved to it and the IRA will appoint a representative to the disarmament commission.
So, finally there is political progress being made again. The question is, though, how long will it last? There is certainly no guarantee that the IRA will start giving up its weapons by February. The IRA will only give up those weapons when it feels assured that the need for armed struggle against the British and for the armed defense of its communities from pro-British loyalists is definitely past. Why it should be convinced of this by February, after a full year of no political progress whatsoever and continuing attacks by dissident loyalists, I don't know. If it decides not even to make a gesture on the issue, there will be trouble all over again.
It remains to be seen if Trimble will really destroy the executive and the GFA if there is no IRA disarmament by February. Certainly he shows every intention now of doing just that. He may feel that the size of the opposition within his party to him leaves him no other choice, that they will have the strength to bring him down as leader if he does anything else. He has no desire to follow Faulkner in becoming a political martyr for power sharing.
