permabear: "I must say, my confidence wanes just a bit..."mitelo: Now THAT, is BEARISH!
Tell me when he capitulates and goes to 100% equities AND buys stocks with no earnings or market dominance, but only a story that drives the stock up. That will be the time to go to 100% cash. :)
permabear: I don't see how the U.S. survives the current explosion in personal and government debt without any consequences.
It doesn't matter. Those of us who own good companies that will benefit from the way the world is changing will make personal fortunes.
Those who over extend to speculate in housing bubbles at the top or dot.bomb stocks and stock funds like TEFQX at the top or who leverage themselves to speculate will get wiped out as they always do.
Those who stick to index investing could have some hard times as old companies that were once prosperous go bankrupt and drag down index fund returns. Enron, Worldcom, GM, Ford, United Airlines et.al, etc..... will hurt index investors. It seems that they will be further hurt by companies like Google not getting added to the S&P500, QQQQ or DJIA until AFTER they have had their big gains.
Of course, index investors who diversify across the full spectrum of available index funds (large and small cap plus international and REIT), as I recommend with the recommended Vanguard Core Portfolio in "My Newsletter " will do just fine because these index funds cover more than just the big names that are in the S&P500, DJIA and QQQQ.
But... the trend chasers who now jump from large cap to small cap could be surprised as large cap now looks very attractive. I've been adding there with some of my profit taking out of the small caps and energy profits I've taken.
Bob Brinker Fan Club
I recently emailed members of the Bob Brinker Fan Club my latest chart showing a plot of the "bulls over bulls plus bears" Investor's Intelligence survey going back to 1998. There was a sharp decline in bulls over bulls plus bears which signaled to us a tradable market bottom was near. The sentiment declined to a support line I identified. The market rallied significantly after I sent out that chart showing sentiment holding support. If you would like a copy of the latest "bulls over bulls plus bears" chart (in pdf format) then sign up to get on the mailing list at the Bob Brinker Fan Club and ask me to send it to you.
