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Bob Brinker Update for November 2005

© Kirk Lindstrom

Bob Brinker Update for 11/30/05

In our Bob Brinker Free Discussion Forum we've been talking about Bob Brinker's market timing model. He uses this in his "Marketimer Newsletter" for predicting the stock market in the months ahead. On recent shows he has been recommending I Bonds for purchase. I Bonds are currently paying 6.73%. Bob Brinker is currently bullish (as of 11/30/05) and has his model portfolios fully invested in the mutual funds he recommends. Read on for more details and check out the following new articles:

Bob Brinker Update: April 23 and Bob Brinker Update 0402

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Is Bob Brinker Still Bullish?

Yes, but he says we are in a cyclical bull market inside a larger secular bear market.

What do you think?

I think the data says this could be wrong since the broader NYSE is more than 5% above its old highs AND making new highs. Brinker himself said a new secular bull market is confirmed when you see new highs 5% above the old highs.

7207 x 1.05 = 7560. The NYSE is at 7768, 7.9% higher!

Below is my reply to some questions in our Bear Café where bears gather to discuss the market. Bulls are welcome to post, but be prepared for healthy skepticism.

In response to Any thoughts on Ed Yardeni's optimism? posted by permabear:

Any thoughts on Ed Yardeni's optimism?

Yes, I agree with him. We are in a new bull market if you use the broader NYSE as your indicator. Just look at the chart:

The chart clearly shows we just tested the 2000 high of 7200 FROM ABOVE! If we hold these new highs, then you have to say the NYSE is in a new, secular bull market since it is making all time highs.

Dr Yardeni's charts, that I have in my files, CORRECTLY called the market over valued in 2000 (and 1999). He correctly recommended a lower asset allocation much like Bob Brinker recommending 60% cash in January 2000. Yardeni also CORRECTLY called the bottom in October 2002 where he raised his asset allocation to his maximum allocation to stocks. I have not seen a recent chart from him, but I'd expect it is still showing the market as under valued because he uses the Fed Model.