What do you think? I believe there will be inflation pressure from hurricane rebuilding efforts and ECRI's FIG (Future Inflation Gage) is still showing inflation pressure ahead. My thinking now is to split my money in half and buy some I Bonds this month and some next month. Post your thoughts and read those of others in our I Bond, iBonds, i-Bonds or Series I bond forum.
Bob Brinker Still Bullish
So far this month, the S&P500 has traded eight days below his "buy level of 1180" for anyone who didn't follow his advice to become fully invested back in March 2003.
As this next chart shows, 1180 has so far been a good place to buy several times in the past year as the markets have gone sideways while being out performed by money market funds.
Bob Brinker Fan Club
I recently emailed members of the Bob Brinker Fan Club my latest chart showing a plot of the "bulls over bulls plus bears" Investor's Intelligence survey going back to 1998. There is a sharp decline in bulls over bulls plus bears which usually means a tradable market bottom is near. This sentiment now shows three dots on the support line for past declines in sentiment which is quite bullish for a rally ahead that should last many months or more. If you would like a copy of the latest "bulls over bulls plus bears" chart (in pdf format) then sign up to get on the mailing list at the Bob Brinker Fan Club and ask me to send it to you.
BTW, some of us have "reverse engineered" Brinker's timing model and it is quite bullish by my estimates. The key thing it would be looking for now is an over heating economy. This won't happen this year as almost every economist expects job losses and GDP slowdown due to Katrina and Rita. When we start to rebuild and if we get high inflation with huge job growth... then I think it could signal a switch, especially if TTM (trailing twelve month) PEs return to the 20's in the excitement.
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