Germany's New Old Chancellor

The election results looked like something to expect from some metropolitan Florida county, but despite the very narrow margin of victory, the ballot counting was orderly, and nobody demanded a recount. Demanding a recount would not be in keeping with the image of German discipline. This does not mean voters were told: "We vote this way". It does mean Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder will seriously need to contemplate the question of whether second acts are truly possible in politics.

Mr. Schroeder came to power during the same election cycle that made Tony Blair prime minister and made Italy's former communist party leader that country's head of government. In other words, the left was in - or at least the left-of-center, "we are moderates"-declaring socialists were in power. Much has happened since then.

Mr. Schroeder (who presented himself as a leftist moderate who was a friend to big business) eventually incurred the wrath of the electorate. Many observers of German politics considered it quite likely that Bavaria's prime minister Edmund Stoiber would be the next Chancellor. The honor is one he sought for a long time. Ideologically Mr. Stoiber is to the right of the right-of-center CDU/CSU bloc, but he has led Bavaria to have the best economy with the least unemployment in Germany. Other issues such as restitution of land owned by the Sudetenland Germans caused Mr. Stoiber some problems, but he thought he could gain victory by reminding voters of the cliche that served Mr. Clinton so well in the 1992 US Presidential elections: "It's the economy, stupid".

And it almost worked for him - until the main story in Germany became this summer's destructive floods. Mr. Schroeder used that as his reason to delay tax cuts he promised since 1997 but never delivered. When given the choice to repair flood damage or have a few more euros in their wallets, Germans sensibly chose to clean up the floods mess.

Mr. Schroeder's next bounce in the polls came when he announced he would oppose US military action in Iraq. Despite a rather severe reprimand by EU foreign policy coordinator Javier Solana and a lengthy lecture from NATO Secretary General George Robertson, Mr. Schroeder intensified his opposition as his poll numbers climbed.

To add to this snub to the US, Germany announced it would not provide the US certain information about some terrorists the US has detained for trial. Why deny the information? Because the terrorists may receive the death penalty, and Germany doesn't like US death penalty policy, so it will not provide information that could lead to an execution.

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