Despite its diminished condition, Russia will not be content as a lesser actor in world affairs. Since the "Scramble for autonomy" (as former Belarussian prime minister Anatoli Shuschkevich labeled the breakdown of centralized authority) Russia has found a new role as a regional power.
Its legacy of expansionism and its reluctance to reject its role as a Great Power present many impediments to reform in Russia. Consider the complexities involved with Russia's military withdrawal from the Baltic States. The main issue was not whether Russia would uphold its obligations to withdraw in pursuance of the Tashkent Accord, but whether Russian commanders in the field and in Moscow could determine when and how to withdraw. After the Gorbachev era, that role was cast to doubt, and the results of other recent interventions were much less than Russia hoped.
The first "defeat" of Russian revanches occurred by its occupation of the Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Tense relations historically prevailed among Russia and the Baltic peoples. During the reign of Tsar Peter I, Russia demonstrated its serious interest in the Baltic region. After the Tsar's armies defeated Sweden's armies in the Great Northern Wars (1689 - 1721), Russia gained much of what is now Lithuania. Tsarina Catherine III's expansionist policies enhanced Russia's claim to the stagnant waters and jagged shoreline of the Baltic Sea. Except the administrative infrastructure the Empire imposed, the Baltic provinces were left essentially quasi-autonomous. Hierarchically it was obvious who were the masters and who were the servants, but foreign occupation was nothing new to the Baltic peoples. Only after the Baltic territories won sovereignty after the first world war and succumbed to Soviet occupation during and after the second world war did that occupation acquire a very different taint to the indigenous Baltic peoples.
On 23 August 1939 the Soviet and German foreign ministers met in Moscow. Late that night they signed a non-aggression pact that declared their good relations and divided the territory of the free states of central Europe including Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. These free states who gained sovereignty after the first world war were neither consulted nor represented at this decisive meeting. On 11 March 1990 Lithuania made the first attempt to sever that illegal bond. Latvia (on 4 May 1990) and Estonia (on 17 May 1990) followed Lithuania's example. This result of Gorbachev government reforms caused more conflicts relating to divided ethnic loyalties, threats of nationalism, renewed Russian expansionism, and delayed withdrawal of Soviet soldiers and equipment from states who never consented to their initial presence.
