Defining the Rules of Engagement: No Way Out?

It is official now. The United States has selected a new President. Appointees of the new administration are now being announced, and the process of policy drafting has begun. Because of its narrow Congressional majority, on many issues the new Bush administration will need to tread gently on turf often cluttered by political land mines. Matters of foreign policy will be particularly important to preserve a consistency of rhetoric and deed to sustain American global superpower status.

One of the first foreign policy issues President George W. Bush will confront will be the next stage of the expansion of NATO. During the election campaign Governor Bush rarely directly addressed global affairs except in the context that he would base his policies on strategic national interests and national security concerns. Where does that stance place an issue such as expanding NATO membership to include the Baltic states (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia) and perhaps two former republics (Croatia and Slovenia) of the Yugoslav Federation? During the election campaign Governor Bush expressed some opposition to the US intervention in Kosovo. If NATO expands into the Balkan Peninsula, US interests and subsequent intervention there will probably be required. Do statements by the new President such as "We want peace among nations" and "We will be loyal to our allies" imply that despite his assertion that the Balkan region is irrelevant to US national interests, the Bush administration would support Slovenian and Croatian membership in NATO as a gesture to encourage and sustain peace in Europe?

Another intricate foreign policy matter for the new administration is Russia. Some analysts dismiss Russia as a has-been among world powers, but that does not make it an irrelevant participant. The conflict in Chechnya continues. Will the Bush administration perceive this persistent war as an internal matter or will it recognize the global implications of the war for such national security issues as control of Caspian Sea oil? Control of the Caspian Sea oil wells and the right to access the pipeline through which it flows (a pipeline that runs directly to refineries in Chechnya) is a tacit goal of many multi-national oil companies and a vital component of the new public relations efforts by Iran towards the West. If US policy seems to favor Iran, other consequences such as the end of the awkward dual containment policy will affect all levels of Middle East alliances. Increased drilling of the Caspian Sea wells will also have a significant impact within OPEC and unforeseen consequences for the international oil markets.

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