Estimates of the massacre's extent differ widely. The government places the death toll at fifty. Survivors and observers place the estimate at approximately five hundred. Two days after the event many people still are trying to find their presumed killed friends and family members, and work crews continue to clean the blood from the street.
What inspired this cruel deed? Part of the answer lies in Uzbekistan's political system. Since it gained independence in 1991, Islam Karimov ruled the former Soviet republic. For all practical purposes Mr. Karimov is a dictator of the worst standards. A staunch ally of Vladimir Putin and the US in the "war against terror", Mr. Karimov took action that contradicts the very purpose of the "war against terror" - he used fighting terrorism as the excuse to inflict terror on his fellow Uzbeks.
Because of its location, Uzbekistan is attractive to Islamic terrorist groups. For years radical Islamic groups tried to foment revolution in Uzbekistan. The most recent incarnation of this is Hizbut-Tirir. The initial reports from state-controlled media in Tashkent were that the 13 May massacre was in response to Hizbut-Tirir activity. Application of simple common sense plainly refutes this claim.
Like many other radical Islamic groups, Hizbut-Tirir operates in small organizations. Since its terrorist organization classification is known, it hardly would announce and hold a protest rally because its leaders surely know the state security forces would slaughter them. In some parts of Uzbekistan Hizbut-Tirir has solid support, but its "prestige" is insufficient to draw thousands of people to assemble in Abijan to protest the Karimov regime. Few Uzbeks (or people anywhere else) willingly would go to a protest where they know they will be killed.
The most obvious response to the governments claim this was a terrorist rally is that based on all press accounts (excluding those by the official Uzbek news agency), the protest's purpose was to draw attention to unemployment and poverty issues. If this were a rally for an Islamic revolution, surely someone would cite the Koran or would describe the fallen as martyrs for the Islamic cause.
This situation places the US in a particularly precarious position in respect of relations with Uzbekistan and the "war on terror". On the one side the action in Abijan must be condemned and Uzbekistan's human rights record under Islam Karimov must be examined much more closely. On the other side the US must ensure Uzbekistan continues its efforts to find terrorists and remove their threat viability. In fact this could be the ideal opportunity for the US to help Uzbekistan to transition towards democracy. There seems to be an emerging vocal opposition to Mr. Karimov. Last year state security forces halted protests in the Uzbek capital Tashkent. Those peaceful protests were held to demand Mr. Karimov's resignation and to urge free and fair elections; this latter goal is very much in keeping with the Bush administration's promise to help expand democracy worldwide, but is the administration willing to help forces of democracy that may topple one of its "war on terror" allies?
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