The Baltic States and Russia: Still Adversaries
It seemed all this was understood at least ten years ago as the newly independent Baltic states began to reassert their traditional ties to northern and western Europe. Problems remained with Russia, but that was inevitable: Russia could not revive its global or regional status if it could not influence its nearby countries. Its neighboring Slavic and non-Slavic states wanted no part of Russian influence or dominance. It seems they had more than enough of their fill of that, and other sources of influence attracted their interests. The Baltic states and other forrmer Soviet bloc members joined the EU, and tangible progress emerged. The Baltic states' potential contributions to Europe's future and the integration process continued very much as those of us who always clearly understood the region's strategic value and under-estimated vitality believed it would. Then Mr. Putin reminded the world of this progress via his very backward-looking public utterances.
First Mr. Putin described the end of the Soviet Union as the geo-political disaster of the twentieth century. Then he denied the Baltic states were occupied. The Victory Day celebration this year resembles the old Soviet May Day parades. These indeed are huge steps backward - backward from reality and backward from building strong alliances. This apparent yearning for yester-year leads to the obvious question: How long until Mr. Putin starts talking about "socialism in one country" (one of Stalin's slogans from the early 1930s)? If he does anything analogous to that, will the reaction from the "near abroad" be the same as it was during the early 1930s? The inter-war era Baltic leaders often reiterated: "Socialism in one country is fine if Russia keeps it in its country".
To their credit the Presidents of Lithuania and Estonia decided to boycott the celebrations in Moscow. Latvia's President Vaira Vike-Freiberga attended not because of a spirit of gratitude towards Russia, but to prove the opposite point that Latvia is more prosperous without Russia's domination. Poland's President attended, but it cost him dearly in terms of domestic political and public support. Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac found reasons not to attend. An excuse is as good as a boycott in these circumstances. The US is the only Western ally to attend Mr. Putin's party. US President George W. Bush promised to "mention" the Baltic occupation issue to Russia's President, but he told his audience in Riga that the Baltic states must "move on" from the
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